Monthly Market Update

Market Commentary from the

Advisors at Citrus Wealth, RJFS

 

Stocks Regain Ground

as States Discuss

Plans to Reopen

April 2020

Globally, billions remain at home under some variation of COVID-related lockdowns and social distancing, a phrase many of us hadn’t heard or used up until this year. Unsurprisingly, this has affected just about every industry, from restaurants to airlines to the oil industry. Oil demand has dropped precipitously, prompting prices to briefly turn negative in April for the first time in history. While prices have begun to stabilize and governments are starting to ease lockdown policies, it will take a long time for oil demand to fully recover, explains Raymond James Energy Analyst Pavel Molchanov. “We anticipate COVID’s oil demand impact peaking in the second quarter, and then subsiding in the summer and especially toward the end of the year,” he added.

 

Reopening state economies is a leading theme in the news, however, we believe that doing so will need to be done carefully and deliberately, most likely in phases, according to Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills. Federal reopening guidelines are more restrictive than some might think in an attempt to stave off a resurgence in cases, which, of course, would hinder a return to large-scale economic normalcy. The timing of an economic restart remains up in the air, and there are still challenges around therapies, a possible vaccine, the impact on consumer behavior and the general trajectory of an economic recovery, adds Joey Madere, senior portfolio strategist, Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy.

 

In the meantime, the policy response has thus far activated close to $3 trillion to help people in need and bolster the economy, but lawmakers are not done yet. The scope and scale of another fiscal relief package will be heavily debated, but additional support for individuals, markets and the economy should arrive over the next few weeks, Mills notes.

 

Despite deteriorating economic data (e.g., U.S. jobless claims increased by 26 million over a four-week span; consumer confidence declined to multi-year lows) as a result of stay-at-home orders to combat the coronavirus, risk assets moved sharply higher during April, explains Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam. Investors looked through the near-term halt in economic activity with increased optimism for a potential coronavirus therapeutic (Remdesivir). Market observers are also seeking more clarity regarding a timeline for the reopening of the U.S. economy.

 

Record stimulus and a slowing of new COVID-19 cases has proved a more stable environment for U.S. equities, explains Madere. Stocks have continued to push higher, although they haven’t yet made up for the deep losses of last month and still ended April in negative territory. The S&P 500 climbed about 12.68% for April, while the Dow Jones rose about 11% and the Nasdaq delivered 15.45%.

Please let me know if you have any questions about current market events or how to position your long-term financial plan for the months ahead. I look forward to speaking with you.

Jeff Marvin

President, CWM

Wealth Manager, RJFS

1461 Ford Street, Suite 103

Redlands, California 92373

909.312.4412 | info@citruswm.com

Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates, Inc., and are subject to change. Past performance is not an indication of future results and there is no assurance that any of the forecasts mentioned will occur. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged index of small cap securities. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. An investment cannot be made in these indexes. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. Small and mid-cap securities generally involve greater risks. Companies engaged in business related to a specific sector are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor's returns. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit nor protect against a loss. Debt securities are subject to credit risk. A downgrade in an issuer’s credit rating or other adverse news about an issuer can reduce the market value of that issuer’s securities. When interest rates rise, the market value of these bonds will decline, and vice versa. Interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax; it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. Chris Bailey is with Raymond James Euro Equities, an affiliate of Raymond James & Associates, and Raymond James Financial Services. Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its advisors. Not approved for rollover solicitations.

 Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. © 2020 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Citrus Wealth Management is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.

 

Raymond James Financial Services does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by email, voicemail, fax or any alternate method. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. Email sent through the Internet is not secure or confidential. Raymond James Financial Services reserves the right to monitor all email. Any information provided in this email has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Raymond James Financial Services and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Raymond James Financial Services and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in this email. This email is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this message in error, please contact the sender immediately and delete the material from your computer.

 

Raymond James

January

Market Recap

January 2020

Domestic stocks had a strong start to the year but soon ran into headwinds related to geopolitical risks in Iran and the Wuhan coronavirus.

 

Coming off the heels of a strong year, the domestic equity markets took investors on a wild ride in January, starting off relatively strong then running into headwinds in the form of increasing concern about rising geopolitical risks in Iran, as well as the Wuhan coronavirus and its perceived debilitating impact on people as well as global markets, explained Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam. Although it’s unclear how severe the coronavirus will be, it has already disrupted China’s economy as Wuhan is an important link in the electronics and automobile supply chains. This uncertainty likely continues to weigh on markets in the short term until fears subside; but with prior epidemics as a guide, we believe the market impact will eventually prove transitory, according to Joey Madere, senior portfolio strategist, Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy.

 

Market observers are also keeping an eye on the primaries and caucus results. Election years often bring increased volatility, and Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills believes this year will be no different. However, with the signing of phase one of the U.S.-China trade deal, we may see some stabilization now that there’s less uncertainty about further tariff increases. The question remains whether both sides can meet their commitments, and what happens if the European Union becomes the next target on the trade agenda.

 

Despite some bumps in the road, January continued some of the momentum from last month and last year, as gross domestic product grew at an estimated 2.1% annual rate in the fourth quarter, and we saw better-than-expected earnings growth. GDP growth is expected to remain mixed, but generally moderate in 2020, according to Chief Economist Scott Brown. The S&P 500 barely slipped into negative territory in January, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1% and Russell 2000 slid 3.26%. The NASDAQ ended up in positive territory, returning almost 2% for the month.

Please let me know if you have any questions about current market events or how to position your long-term financial plan for the months ahead. I look forward to speaking with you.

Jeff Marvin

President, CWM

Wealth Manager, RJFS

1461 Ford Street, Suite 103

Redlands, California 92373

909.312.4412 | info@citruswm.com

Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates, Inc., and are subject to change. Past performance is not an indication of future results and there is no assurance that any of the forecasts mentioned will occur. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged index of small cap securities. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. An investment cannot be made in these indexes. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. Small and mid-cap securities generally involve greater risks. Companies engaged in business related to a specific sector are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor's returns. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit nor protect against a loss. Debt securities are subject to credit risk. A downgrade in an issuer’s credit rating or other adverse news about an issuer can reduce the market value of that issuer’s securities. When interest rates rise, the market value of these bonds will decline, and vice versa. Interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax; it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. Chris Bailey is with Raymond James Euro Equities, an affiliate of Raymond James & Associates, and Raymond James Financial Services. Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its advisors. Not approved for rollover solicitations.

 Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. © 2019 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Citrus Wealth Management is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.

 

Raymond James Financial Services does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by email, voicemail, fax or any alternate method. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. Email sent through the Internet is not secure or confidential. Raymond James Financial Services reserves the right to monitor all email. Any information provided in this email has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Raymond James Financial Services and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Raymond James Financial Services and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in this email. This email is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this message in error, please contact the sender immediately and delete the material from your computer.

 

Equities Reach

New Highs

in December

December 2019

A December rally in the equity markets punctuated an already strong year – quite a reversal from a year ago.


In 2018, the worst December in history pulled annual returns for most major asset classes into negative territory. In 2019, domestic and international markets responded positively to December news of an agreement in the U.S.-China trade dispute and the avoidance of a no-deal Brexit, while largely brushing off the impeachment of President Donald Trump. Overall, investors regained their appetite for risk in 2019, pushing major U.S. stock indices to multiple new highs.


The S&P 500 gained 2.86% in December and 28.88% for the year, representing the strongest year since 2013 for the broad U.S.-market index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.74%), NASDAQ (3.54%) and Russell 2000 (2.71%) also made positive strides during December.


Solid fundamentals, accommodative central bank policy – 65% of central banks eased policy in 2019, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, compared to just 5% in 2018 – and strong holiday shopping sales also contributed to the rally, according to Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.


In Washington, D.C., agreements on trade and a bipartisan government funding package also removed lingering uncertainties, according to Raymond James’ Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills.


Despite declining bond prices in December, core fixed income had its strongest year since 2002, with the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond TR index returning 8.72% for the year.

Please let me know if you have any questions about current market events or how to position your long-term financial plan for the months ahead. I look forward to speaking with you.

Jeff Marvin

President, CWM

Wealth Manager, RJFS

1461 Ford Street, Suite 103

Redlands, California 92373

909.312.4412 | info@citruswm.com

Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates, Inc., and are subject to change. Past performance is not an indication of future results and there is no assurance that any of the forecasts mentioned will occur. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged index of small cap securities. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. An investment cannot be made in these indexes. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. Small and mid-cap securities generally involve greater risks. Companies engaged in business related to a specific sector are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor's returns. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit nor protect against a loss. Debt securities are subject to credit risk. A downgrade in an issuer’s credit rating or other adverse news about an issuer can reduce the market value of that issuer’s securities. When interest rates rise, the market value of these bonds will decline, and vice versa. Interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax; it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. Chris Bailey is with Raymond James Euro Equities, an affiliate of Raymond James & Associates, and Raymond James Financial Services. Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its advisors. Not approved for rollover solicitations.

 Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. © 2018 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Citrus Wealth Management is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.

 

Raymond James Financial Services does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by email, voicemail, fax or any alternate method. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. Email sent through the Internet is not secure or confidential. Raymond James Financial Services reserves the right to monitor all email. Any information provided in this email has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Raymond James Financial Services and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Raymond James Financial Services and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in this email. This email is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this message in error, please contact the sender immediately and delete the material from your computer.

 

Equities Gain

Ground Globally

in November

November 2019

Despite a steady drumbeat of headlines about impeachment, trade and the impending U.S. presidential elections, the market mood remains generally positive. There was some headline volatility to trade talks over the past few weeks, however, China announced stricter compliance to intellectual property rights (a key sticking point to structural issues with the U.S.), which has discussions moving in the right direction, according to Joey Madere, senior portfolio strategist, Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy.

Toward the end of November, the markets were trending positively despite all of the above, bringing some level of comfort to investors. Of course, these pressing issues can be expected to remain in the news, but it seems the market is pricing in progress on trade and not anticipating a jolt from impeachment or the election, suggests Raymond James’ Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills. Although, he cautions, this could quickly change if the December 15 tariffs go into effect. He also anticipates some volatility as frontrunners emerge during the upcoming primaries and caucuses.

According to Chief Economist Scott Brown, monetary policy appears to be well-positioned to support economic growth, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell implied that short-term interest rates are on hold for the time being, with the usual caveat that the central bank would cut rates again “if the outlook changes materially.”

On the back of still solid domestic economic fundamentals (with muted risk of recession over the next 12 months), positive trade developments and a better-than-expected third-quarter earnings season, the S&P 500 posted its best November gain (3.63%) since 2009 and notched 11 record highs during the month, shares Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam. The positive performance was a continuation of the strong gains experienced throughout 2019, as the broad-market index is up more than 25% year to date, having notched 25 record highs since January.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (3.72%), NASDAQ (4.50%) and the Russell 2000 Index (3.97%) also made positive strides during the month.

Please let me know if you have any questions about current market events or how to position your long-term financial plan for the months ahead. I look forward to speaking with you.

Jeff Marvin

President, CWM

Wealth Manager, RJFS

1461 Ford Street, Suite 103

Redlands, California 92373

909.312.4412 | info@citruswm.com

Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates, Inc., and are subject to change. Past performance is not an indication of future results and there is no assurance that any of the forecasts mentioned will occur. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged index of small cap securities. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. An investment cannot be made in these indexes. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. Small and mid-cap securities generally involve greater risks. Companies engaged in business related to a specific sector are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor's returns. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit nor protect against a loss. Debt securities are subject to credit risk. A downgrade in an issuer’s credit rating or other adverse news about an issuer can reduce the market value of that issuer’s securities. When interest rates rise, the market value of these bonds will decline, and vice versa. Interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax; it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. Chris Bailey is with Raymond James Euro Equities, an affiliate of Raymond James & Associates, and Raymond James Financial Services. Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its advisors. Not approved for rollover solicitations.

 Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. © 2019 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Citrus Wealth Management is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.

 

Raymond James Financial Services does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by email, voicemail, fax or any alternate method. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. Email sent through the Internet is not secure or confidential. Raymond James Financial Services reserves the right to monitor all email. Any information provided in this email has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Raymond James Financial Services and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Raymond James Financial Services and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in this email. This email is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this message in error, please contact the sender immediately and delete the material from your computer.

 

Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates, Inc., and are subject to change. Past performance is not an indication of future results and there is no assurance that any of the forecasts mentioned will occur. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged index of small cap securities. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. An investment cannot be made in these indexes. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. Small and mid-cap securities generally involve greater risks. Companies engaged in business related to a specific sector are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor's returns. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit nor protect against a loss. Debt securities are subject to credit risk. A downgrade in an issuer’s credit rating or other adverse news about an issuer can reduce the market value of that issuer’s securities. When interest rates rise, the market value of these bonds will decline, and vice versa. Interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax; it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. Chris Bailey is with Raymond James Euro Equities, an affiliate of Raymond James & Associates, and Raymond James Financial Services. Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its advisors. Not approved for rollover solicitations.

 Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. © 2020 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Citrus Wealth Management is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.

 

Raymond James Financial Services does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by email, voicemail, fax or any alternate method. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. Email sent through the Internet is not secure or confidential. Raymond James Financial Services reserves the right to monitor all email. Any information provided in this email has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Raymond James Financial Services and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Raymond James Financial Services and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in this email. This email is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this message in error, please contact the sender immediately and delete the material from your computer.

Disclosure

 

Despite Geopolitical Woes, Stocks Pushed Higher in October

October 2019

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut short-term interest rates 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, following similar cuts in July and September, putting the federal funds target range at 1.50%-1.75%. In his post-meeting press conference, Chair Jerome Powell said officials “believe that monetary policy is in a good place,” suggesting that further cuts are unlikely. However, he added that “if developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly.”  


Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills continues to follow the ongoing China trade negotiations and impeachment proceedings that present risks and opportunities for the market. Impeachment investigations are expected to begin a more public-facing phase around mid-November, while discussions toward a limited “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal are reportedly progressing positively, he notes. A deal is likely to outline common ground on agricultural purchases, currency stability, market access for financial services, and initial steps on intellectual property rights protections.
    
The month of October also harbored potentially impactful news about: Brexit negotiations, global accommodative monetary policy, short-term funding, Hong Kong protests, a global manufacturing recession, China and European growth concerns, and upcoming U.S. elections. Yet the markets displayed a risk-on sentiment, which Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam attributes to reduced recessionary fears, increased optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations, continued easing by the Fed and a better than expected earnings season. That, in conjunction with positive seasonal trends, propelled the S&P 500 to rally to a new all-time high for the fourth time in five months, Adam reports.

 

The month ended positively for the S&P 500 (2.04%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.48%), NASDAQ (3.66%) and the Russell 2000 Index (2.57%). 

Please let me know if you have any questions about current market events or how to position your long-term financial plan for the months ahead. I look forward to speaking with you.

Jeff Marvin

President, CWM

Wealth Manager, RJFS

1461 Ford Street, Suite 103

Redlands, California 92373

909.312.4412 | info@citruswm.com

Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates, Inc., and are subject to change. Past performance is not an indication of future results and there is no assurance that any of the forecasts mentioned will occur. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged index of small cap securities. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. An investment cannot be made in these indexes. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. Small and mid-cap securities generally involve greater risks. Companies engaged in business related to a specific sector are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor's returns. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit nor protect against a loss. Debt securities are subject to credit risk. A downgrade in an issuer’s credit rating or other adverse news about an issuer can reduce the market value of that issuer’s securities. When interest rates rise, the market value of these bonds will decline, and vice versa. Interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax; it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. Chris Bailey is with Raymond James Euro Equities, an affiliate of Raymond James & Associates, and Raymond James Financial Services. Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its advisors. Not approved for rollover solicitations.

 Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. © 2019 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Citrus Wealth Management is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.

 

Raymond James Financial Services does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by email, voicemail, fax or any alternate method. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. Email sent through the Internet is not secure or confidential. Raymond James Financial Services reserves the right to monitor all email. Any information provided in this email has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Raymond James Financial Services and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Raymond James Financial Services and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in this email. This email is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this message in error, please contact the sender immediately and delete the material from your computer.

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